Well, to say that last season did not go according to plan would be an understatement. I was concerned with the Sherrone Moore hire and how many staff members left with Harbaugh, but I certainly did not think it would be this bad. Forgetting about the scandal, the team looked like they did not even practice each week. Nor did they look like they had a game plan. I’m not sure how successful Kyle Whittingham and his staff will be but I can guarantee that the team will be more organized and disciplined than they have been the last two years…and that is something that each person can take solace in. Being organized, prepared and disciplined is a great base to build from. There is no reason with the amount of talent and money available at this program for Whittingham that he cannot have success.
OFFENSE
It’s honestly at the point that everything was such a mess last year that you have to give everyone that underperformed a pass. Starting with Bryce Underwood. Clearly he was not good enough last year and I do not think it’s a stretch to say he was never comfortable. He did not look like he trusted the offensive line and that led to a complete breakdown in his mechanics (which would have been worked on with a QB coach if they had one) and it looked like he did not trust the play calling. One of the first things Whittingham did when he got there is talk up Bryce, meet with him and declare him the starter. He knows what he’s got and the talent is there, they just have to develop it and unlock it. I think with a dedicated QB coach on staff (Koy Detmer) and an OC with a plan (Jason Beck) that they will get the most out of him. Utah QB Devon Dampier was one of the better dual threats in the country the last two years. He’s been tremendously efficient as a passer and has added 850+ rushing yards each year. I’m expecting them to use Bryce the exact same way, especially with having competent backups behind him in Tommy Carr and Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. Sherrone and Co never wanted him to run because if he got hurt, they did not have a backup plan. That’s understandable and a fair point. But, you need the threat of his legs to open up his playmaking ability and to unlock the offense.
So what will the new offense look like?
I think this highlight reel gives you a pretty solid idea of what we can expect. They’re going to work to get the ball to their playmakers as much as possible and as quickly as possible. Beck says that he sets out with a goal to get his playmakers a certain amount of touches each game and I think that’s a good way to go about it. I expect Jordan Marshall to get the majority of the carries with Savion Hiter supplementing. Both of them are studs and I think that Jordan Marshall is a legit Heisman dark horse candidate. Hiter has to be one of the most physically ready freshman running backs in Michigan history. He was absolutely wrecking people in the spring game and I expect that to continue after a full summer of training. Bryson Kuzdzal will round out the depth and he is no slouch, but we’re going to have a pair of bellcows that will share the majority of the carries. I’m legitimately excited for the rushing attack from this offense, even with losing Justice Haynes…that is saying a lot.
With the pass catchers, this may be the most talented young wide receiver room that Michigan has had since the Tarik Black-Nico Collins-Donovan Peoples-Jones trio. Andrew Marsh had the best freshman season of any wide receiver in school history and he’s only going to get better from here. Channing Goodwin has emerged as the starting slot receiver, but the transfer portal additions of JJ Buchanan and Jamie Ffrench will be contributors early as well. The best part? 3 of the 4 wide receivers I just mentioned are sophomores. Mix in freshmen Travis Johnson and Salesi Moa and I’m expecting 5 guys to record a healthy amount of receptions, and play regularly, all under the age of 20. This offense has a chance to be good this year, but it may be elite next year. On top of that, Marsh and Goodwin are the only 2 guys of this group under 6’2″…this is going to be a big group that can be physically imposing.
Tight end could end up being a revolving door behind Zack Marshall. They’re all pretty athletic and I expect Hogan Hansen to get some run, but I think true freshman Mason Bonner is a sneaky candidate to get some playing time in some important spots. He has drawn rave reviews in camp and I do not think that should go unnoticed. He’s a freaky athlete and that’s something that will translate early and often. You can always teach someone to block, you can’t teach someone to be athletic.
The offensive line seems to have solidified itself with Andrew Babalola going down in camp with an injury. Completely unfortunate but I think he will still get a chance to play this year. Beck says that Blake Frazier had pulled away at the left tackle spot pre-injury, but we’ll see how things shake out once Babalola is back.
I’ll be curious to see how they handle the rotation at guard so that everyone gets equal snaps…I’m personally expecting Link to play the whole game at LG and for Efobi and Norton to rotate through RG but we’ll see! It’s worth experimenting against Western Michigan but you want to have a group solidified for Oklahoma. Having Sprague, Frazier, Link and Guarnera gives you plenty of experiencing returning. We’ve seen the growing pains of an inexperienced offensive line and it can complete hamstring an entire offense. Sure it’s a new system but all experience matters. It helps the room grow when you have leaders and with Jim Harding as the offensive line coach, I’m plenty confident that they will find not only the best combination of players but they will also get the most out of those guys. It’s also important to note that the Jason Beck offense utilizes a “rhino” position and so there will be a lot of times there are six offensive linemen on the field…probably half the time actually. The guys at that spot were Manuel Beigel, Avery Gach and Marky Walbridge…Beigel is a former defensive lineman but the rest were recruited offensive linemen. Gach was a pretty highly touted in-state offensive line recruit so I’m curious to see how much he plays and if he can take hold of the job.
DEFENSE
The defense is where things will get interesting. I was initially worried about the secondary but I think they’re going to be just fine. Meanwhile, the coaches and players keep talking up the defensive and the edge group. John Henry Daley is a known stud, just coming off of an injury, and Dom Nichols has seemingly had potential but according to everyone this is going to be a dynamic duo that will terrorize opponents. Then you’ve got Carter Meadows, Zach Marshall, Tariq Boney and Cam Brandt…if things play out like the staff says it will, this could actually end up being a deep group that is very young. I have more reason to take this staff at their word than the last group…but I’m going to remain skeptical because I was a little too optimistic about the football team last year.
I expect a solid rotation at the DT spot with Pierce and Etta getting most of the looks, but I’m also expecting them to slide some guys inside to get more pass rushers on the field when necessary. The tackle spot is very light, there’s just no way around it. New defensive coordinator Jay Hill also said to expect Jonah Lea’ea, Bobby Kanka, and Deyvid Palepale to rotate through early and often.
If you thought defensive tackle was thin…linebacker might take the cake. Chase Taylor, Troy Bowles and Nate Staehling are the three starters but I’m expecting Nathan Owusu-Boateng to get a bunch of playing time early as well. If there are any injuries at this spot, start praying. True freshman Markel Dabney will probably get some early playing time as well. Hell, they might play everyone here to try and see what they have and what their options are. This group scares the hell out of me. Plain and simple. That being said, Jay Hill is a wizard. The BYU defense was always outstanding and he describes his scheme as the most complicated in America so it can keep offenses uncomfortable. I trust him. I don’t expect things to be perfect and there will be growing pains this year, but I expect him to be able to put guys in spots to be successful.
The seocondary actually looks to be in a pretty good spot right now. Rod Moore is almost back to 100% and should start week 1. Chris Bracy will play SS next to him and the three starting corners will be Jyaire Hill, Smith Snowden and Zeke Berry. Snowden’s arrival lets Berry move back to his best spot in my opinion, which is the nickel. Past that, the next guys up will be Shamari Earls and Jo’Ziah Edmond at corner and then Mason Curtis and Jordan Young at the safety spots. it was too bad they lost Elijah Dotson and Jayden Sanders in the portal but there is still a lot of young talent in the secondary. This starting secondary group though is very experienced and very skilled. It may not be the best defensive back group Michigan has ever had, but they are not slouches. If Rod Moore didn’t have such bad injury history, I would say all 5 players were locks to get drafted. Between the defensive line and the defensive backs, I have hopes that this defense will actually be pretty solid.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Transfer portal kicker and punter, please and thank you. Not going to make any judgements because Dominic Zvada was elite and then average his second year so we’ll see how it shakes out with Troy Butkowski. He had a good year kicking at Pitt last year and he’s accurate in the mid-range and important distances. I don’t think he has the same distance that Zvada and Moody had…probably more of a James Turner leg. Anybody but Hudson Hollenbeck punting will be greatly appreciated. I’m not sure who will be returning kicks and punts, but I’m not sure they will risk Andrew Marsh returning both. I’m going to guess that it is Andrew Marsh returning punts (who will be a huge improvement over Semaj Morgan) and then I’m going to say Savion Hiter will return kickoffs. They will want to get the ball into his hands as much as possible and that would give them another shot at it. If you want an in-depth analysis on kickers, head over to MGoBlog.
DEPTH CHART (via Blue By 90)
PREDICTION
I’m trying to balance being optimistic and realistic here. I truly think this team’s floor is 8-4 and the ceiling is 10-2. This is going to be a well-coached and disciplined team. Truly like a Harbaugh team. Kyle Whittingham had a great track record at Utah and now he has more resources than he could have ever imagined. He took all of his best coaches with him and snagged an elite defensive coordinator from BYU. This is a great staff…no ifs ands or buts about it.
If they win all of the games they should, but lose to Oklahoma, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State, that makes for a boring “beat everyone they were supposed to Lloyd Carr” kind of year. My hope is that they can win two of those games because that gets you into the playoff no problem. If you win one of those four and finish up 9-3…that could be a bit of a dice roll. Now they have had to change a lot in a short period of time. Systematically, culturally, physically…nearly all of it. It is astounding how much Sherrone and his staff managed to unravel in such a short time span. But that’s what happens when you give a job to someone without any experience and does not know what they’re doing. Michigan should never have a first time head coach as a head coach in ANY sport, let alone football.
Ultimately I think this team will end up going 9-3. I think they will make great strides and they will be in a great position to achieve something special next year. I think they will stumble early against Oklahoma. They’re experienced and will provide a tough test. Then playing at Oregon and at Ohio State two of the last three games is just a brutal schedule occurrence that will be tough to come back from. The traveling out west without a bye and playing a rival, not to mention both are elite teams. Just feels like a 9-3 season with a possible playoff appearance, or playing another big school in a bowl game like the Outback Bowl. At the end of the day, I’m excited to watch a team that will be structured and disciplined and hopefully have less chaos and turmoil off-the-field. Some stability and proper coaching will go a long way with the talent that is on this roster.
Photo via: Freep
Photo via: MGoBlue.com
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