This year it certainly feels like I’ve been in catch up mode when getting ready for the NFL Draft than in years past. One thing that is blatantly obvious to every Lions fan is that they have plenty of holes to fill and they cannot afford to underachieve and underperform like last year. The current roster was at a bit of a crossroad this year and they went through and let some of the older guys walk. This was the smart move. Rather than paying to keep older vets around, no matter how good or important they have been, it is time to get younger. They have a cap crunch as it is with the future extensions getting ready to kick in, so there was no reason to keep money tied up in guys like Decker and Anzalone. I applaud Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell for having the stones to make the hard decision. It would have been easy to pay them to come back, or promise them starting roles, and just try to run it back.
I’m sure some people are starting to doubt Brad Holmes and wonder about his ability. He can come off as a bit arrogant in some of his press conferences, so I can see how that can rub people the wrong way. As soon as things start to go a little wrong, the doubters always jump out. I’m not here to tell you that he’s infallible, and he has some pretty big misses, but he still has my trust. He has crushed all of the important picks (except potentially Terrion Arnold/Ennis Rakestraw), with his problems coming with his trade ups to go and get “his guys.” If anyone was ever guilty of over-liking prospects or guys, it would definitely be Holmes. But they have done a really good job with the team and the draft to this point…no one is going to be perfect. That being said, this is a pivotal draft for them and they know it. Holmes skipped the GM meetings to continue on with their draft prep for a reason. As I said earlier, they’re getting close to having all of their monster extensions kick in and they still have to sign Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell, Brian Branch, and Sam LaPorta…that’s going to be a lot more money going out and I’m not even sure they will be able to sign everyone. It is more important now than ever before to nail this upcoming draft and keep guys at an affordable cost for the next few years.
So what are the big positions of need?
Starting RT, EDGE, safety, defensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback are the biggest needs for me. No worries…just the entire defense.
There are obviously other holes, and I would love for them to add a third running back so we’re not looking at Saylors or Vaki if there is an injury. And it would be beneficial to look at another tight end in case LaPorta still isn’t quite right. Now they brought in Conklin for depth, so I find this to be less likely, but their future at tight end is quite murky if you consider the fact that no one is under contract after this season. Tight end is a sneaky need.
So where to begin? I’ll tell you right now based on everything that I’ve read and listened to that the Lions are definitely comfortable letting Larry Borom start at RT and DJ Wonnum start at EDGE opposite Hutchinson next season. Whether that is the right decision or not, who knows. But they absolutely need to get an offensive tackle of the future in the mix. It is a very deep tackle class early, but after the first 7-8 guys it drops off pretty hard. It seems that the Lions are intent on moving Penei to LT. So your OL will look like this:
LT Penei Sewell LG Christian Mahogany/Ben Bartch/Miles Frazier C Cade Mays RG Tate Ratledge RT Larry Borom/Rookie
They added Juice Scruggs via trade but I think he’s purely a backup in the interior. His versatility there will be great but I don’t think he’s a starter. I also do not think that Giovanni Manu is a future starter on the OL. He was a project to begin with and I’m not sure he will ever be a finished product that is good enough to roll out on the field regularly. This team largely failed last year because of the performance of the offensive line. It completely crippled the offense. Now this unit even with Borom starting at RT will be good…let’s get that absolutely clear. But I would love for them to add someone in the first round to be the future starter at right tackle.
Past that, I think that is it for the offense. You’re not going to be able to address all of your needs. They do not have a future starter at QB on the roster. RB looks thin if Gibbs or Pacheco go down and like I said, TE is a bit hairy. I’m guessing they take a stab at a TE late because of the depth of this class and they maybe explore adding another RB in free agency.
Unfortunately, the defense has a lot of work to do and a lot of needs to be filled and I expect the draft to reflect that.
Right off the hop, we have no idea what the future at safety looks like. Branch is coming off a torn achilles and I doubt he will be ready to start the season. Kerby Joseph? Who knows. He has a degenerative knee issue and while I’m not a doctor, I can tell you that is not good. Looking at their roster, you can tell they are also concerned about safety because of the sheer number of them they are carrying. Izien and Clark were added in free agency but I’m not sure you want either one starting or playing meaningful minutes for the whole season. And as much as I want to declare cornerback a need, so long as Terrion stays out of trouble, they have enough guys there to start…especially when you consider the fact Avonte Maddox can play anywhere in the secondary. I hope they draft a cornerback but I’ll be curious to see if they are content with what they have. If I was calling the shots, I would make sure to get one but hard to know which way Holmes will go with this. It is hard to count on Rakestraw given his injury history.
Pivoting back to the DL, they do not have enough depth at EDGE or at DT to get through this season. Their starters? No question they are good enough. But the depth chart behind them is littered with band aids. Onwuzurike is always hurt and so is Peyton Turner. I suppose Turner is worth a flyer to them, but to me, he has been hurt for more games than he has started in the league and that is a non-starter. Hassanein has never played and Wingo had a down year after a solid rookie season. Chris Smith didn’t play a game last year. This team is desperate for help on the DL at both the EDGE and the interior. And with how this draft is, it would have been beneficial to have a 3rd round pick and I would anticipate the Lions trading up.
Linebacker…what is there to say? Jack Campbell and Derrick Barnes are good starters. Rodriguez, Clark and Nowaske all provide great depth. They’re missing one more starting linebacker. If they were to draft a SAM linebacker then they could move Barnes to WILL and all would be great. Fortunately, this unit is pretty sturdy compared to the rest of the defense. I would not be surprised if this was one area on defense they chose not to address early on and rolled with their guys.
So how do we fix this? Well…I would probably try to trade up from 17 to secure a starting right tackle and then trade down from 50 to add additional picks in the third. Two 5’s, Two 6’s and a 7 aren’t going to fix the holes they’ve got, so I am hoping that Brad decides to move around the board a lot. This team needs 5-6 really good players…taking 9 players and cutting a couple will not help this team. That said, the Lions are very lucky that this is a deep draft on the defensive side of the ball. Maybe chucking a ton of darts is the best plan of action.
MOCK DRAFT
1st Round, 17th Overall: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
I would say the odds of Fano being there at 17 are slim to none, but this is my blog so this is how we’re going to do things. Fano would be the perfect guy to get to be the future starter at RT. Any time Utah had an important run, they went behind Fano. He has shorter arms, but that does not matter to me as much as some other traits. As long as they pass the minimum threshold it should not matter.
Blake Miller, OT, Clemson OR Monroe Freeling, OT, UGA OR Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
2nd Round, 50th Overall: Derrick Moore, EDGE, Michigan
This is going to be a prime spot for me to beg for them to draft a Michigan player. Either Jaishawn Barham or Derrick Moore. This is probably too early for Barham (hell maybe even Moore) but his athleticism would allow the Lions to play him at SAM or EDGE and then they could move Derrick Barnes to WILL. But, Moore gives the Lions an every down EDGE…one that got better every single year he was in school. He was one of the most efficient pass rushers in the country last year and he is exactly what they need to start opposite Hutchinson. He would be the most ready player to pick right here between the two.
Jaishawn Barham, EDGE, Michigan OR Gabe Jacas, EDGE, Illinois OR Kyle Louis, LB, Pitt
4th Round, 118th Overall: Bud Clark, S, TCU
Now this is why I would almost guarantee they make a trade and I will be begging them to make one. There are a ton of great prospects that will go between 50 and 118 and Bud Clark is most likely one of them. Clark is an absolute ball hawk and had 15 career interceptions in college. He has great speed and explosiveness and would be a great replacement for Kerby Joseph down the line. The one thing the Lions miss most when Kerby is out is how many turnovers he creates and Clark’s ball skills would be a huge addition.
Kaleb Elarms-Orr, LB, TCU OR Brian Parker, OL, Duke
4th Round, 128th Overall: Chris McClellan, DT, Missouri
McClellan may never be a starter and he’s not great at one thing, but he is good at everything. This type of all-around player is exactly what the Lions need behind Tyliek and Alim. He’s not going to collapse the pocket and wreck the game, but he can contribute a little as a pass rusher while not sacrificing anything in the run game. This is exactly what you want out of a rotational guy.
Chandler Rivers, CB, Duke OR Tacario Davis, CB, Washington
5th Round, 157th Overall: Jack Kelly, LB, BYU
Kelly is tone setter and a locker room guy that plays with a ton of speed and would be an easy addition to the special teams unit. I’m not sure he has starting capabilities, but at the very least, you know he will be in the rotation and he will help out one of your units. He’s stout against the run and while he struggles in coverage, he would provide depth. Honestly, there are a lot of similarities between him and Rodriguez.
Jakobe Thomas, S, Miami FL OR Dallan Bentley, TE, Utah
5th Round, 181st Overall: Kaytron Allen, RB, Penn State
Allen and Nick Singleton are going to go far later than you would have imagined when they started their careers at Penn State, but that is okay. Allen is a big, physical back and he would be the perfect change of pace/backup to Jahmyr Gibbs once Isiah Pacheco’s contract is up. I don’t envision him as being as productive or as relevant as David Montgomery was for the Lions, but he could certainly be a poor man’s Monty.
Wesley Williams, EDGE, Duke OR Rashaun Benny, DT, Michigan
6th Round, 205th Overall: Marlin Klein, TE, Michigan
Another homer pick, obviously. Marlin is highly athletic, a willing blocker and just coming into his own as a pass catcher. He had a limited role as a pass catcher until last year and if he had gotten some better QB play and had stayed healthy, I’m willing to bet he would have been highly productive. This is the kind of guy that you take a shot on late in the draft to see if he can develop into a future player for you.
Wade Woodaz, LB, Clemson OR Matthew Hibner, TE, SMU
6th Round, 213th Overall: Harold Perkins, LB/EDGE, LSU
I’m certain Perkins won’t be available this late in the draft but it is always fun to dream. Perkins burst on to the scene and everyone seemed to think he was a future first rounder. He is highly athletic but unfortunately he is a complete tweener. I’m not sure how the Lions would prefer to deploy him, but if anyone can figure it out, I would be willing to bet on Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes. He’s great at creating turnovers and is solid in coverage but he is small. Having the smallest hands at the NFL Combine is not a great thing.
Tyreak Sapp, EDGE, FLA OR Isaiah World, OT, Oregon
7th Round, 222nd Overall: Parker Brailsford, IOL, Alabama
Some more depth in the interior of the offensive line could not possibly hurt. Especially another one with center experience. I’m not even sure the Lions would consider him a scheme fit under Petzing but wherever they go with this pick, you’re looking at a depth player at best that might contribute on special teams. Given the issues on the OL last year, I figure one final stab at finding someone that can help in a pinch would be the way to go. Plus, it is time to clear out some of the failed projects to bring in some new ones.
Andre Fuller, DB, Toledo OR Quintayvious Hutchins, EDGE, Boston College
This year the Lions canceled their local pro day and have seemingly been keeping their top 30 visits and everything much closer to the chest. You can see a full list of 30 man visits that have been reported publicly on Pride of Detroit…but it is quite light compared to years past. Ultimately, we have some clues in the past as to what Brad Holmes might do, but we really do not know how this will shake out. What I do know is that the Lions have one glaring need on the OL, some needs for depth at some spots on offense and a whole slew of issues on defense. I think the other thing you can count on is for Brad Holmes to move around the board. He is very clearly not shy about moving up for “his guys” and he will move back if he does not like how things are shaking out. I would bet a lot of money that the Lions do not make 9 picks this weekend and they certainly won’t pick in all of those spots.
See? It’s not too hard.
Photo via: Detroit Free Press
Photo via: Bleacher Report
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