Well…better late than never. Last year I wrote Super Bowl or bust…and it was definitely a bust after an awesome regular season. After having a clean year injury-wise two years ago, last year was a disaster and it finally caught up with them in the playoffs. That stuff is going to happen, but the message is still going to be the same. Super Bowl or bust. This team is in the prime winning window and I do not care what anyone else says…it has not closed and is not closing. Everyone and their brother wanted them to get another pass rusher and Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell did not do that. First of all, they have to pay Hutchinson and a slew of other guys so they need to conserve their cap and cash. Second of all, you have to trust them. I hated the Hendon Hooker and Brodric Martin picks at the time and they thought they were right to acquire them. Well, this year they cut both (and they only carried 50 guys across the roster deadline) and moved on. You have to put your full faith in a crew that is willing to cut guys that were “their guys” and admit they were wrong and move on. The worst thing a coach or manager can do is hold onto a guy for too long thinking they can make it work or be unwilling to give up on “their guy.” Holmes and Campbell are clearly willing to call a spade a spade at all times. To only carry 50 players at the roster deadline because only 50 met their standard? Yeah, I’m all in and going to continue to trust them implicitly, even if I do not always like their picks…I suggest you do the same.
OFFENSE
This is one of those weird ones where we do not have to talk about the offense much. Everyone knows that if Jared Goff goes down, they’re in trouble. Everyone knows that Gibbs is a budding superstar and Montgomery is a warrior. Both are going to have roles and be key cogs to this offense. Everyone knows that Amon-Ra, Jameson, and LaPorta are going to lead the way catching the ball. Obviously you have a new OC, but John Morton has been here before and Dan Campbell is still here. It’s going to be a collaborative play calling experience and I really do not expect much to change. I’m sure there will be some new nuances and wrinkles because everyone wants to put their own stamp on things, but they built this offense for Jared Goff and last time I checked, he’s still there.
So what is new and what is important? Well, rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa had such a great preseason they felt that Tim Patrick was expendable and they moved on from him. I was unsure of the pick at the time, but he looks like the real deal and his run blocking alone gives me a great feeling for the future. The OL went through a pretty big makeover with Kevin Zeitler leaving in free agency and Frank Ragnow retiring. The Lions ended up spending two picks on different offensive linemen, after drafting two last year as well. Clearly they were ready for the Ragnow retirement and after experimenting with rookie 2nd rounder Tate Ratledge at center, they pivoted to Graham Glasgow at center. I expected Glasgow to take over the center role when they drafted Ratledge. Ratledge has never played center before, but it would not surprise me if he is the center of the future. It would be hard to toss him in as a rookie at such a critical position, but I fully expect them to crosstrain him at center and he will be the guy. That would give them Miles Frazier as the potential future starting RG (rookie 5th rounder out of LSU) and that would give them a ridiculously young interior. If you ended up going Decker-Mahogany-Ratledge-Frazier-Sewell a year from now, Decker would be the only one over the age of 24 and he’s 32. Hard not to be excited about this possibility if that is indeed their plan and it works out. In the meantime, Glasgow is a much better center than he is LG so I’m expecting a bounce back season for him. He’s not Frank Ragnow, nobody is, but he can be a starter at a high level.
So, what do we expect out of the offense? I expect the offensive line to take a bit of a step back, which could result in the offense itself taking a bit of a step back. But with the sheer number of playmakers they have to get the ball to, I expect some major fireworks and I do not expect them to miss much of a beat. Goff is going to sling the rock and spread it out and they are going to have a perfect thunder and lightning combo in the backfield. Excuse me, Sonic and Knuckles. This team and scheme can succeed against anyone and I have high hopes for them again this year.
DEFENSE
Alright, so here are where the questions arise and what the bulk of this preview is going to talk about. Obviously if they sustain a major injury to Hutch or a starter in the secondary, this season could go sideways very quickly. But let’s not think like that! Everyone wanted the Lions to address the defensive line and grab another pass rusher to go opposite Hutch. The Lions zigged and went for Tyleik Williams in the first round, who is a freaky guy that will be a lot of fun to pair with Alim McNeill once he’s back from injury (and in the future). There are all sorts of ways to rush the passer and you can do it from the interior. You can see looking at the unofficial depth chart that they have an absolute crew in the interior and this does not even include Alim. Until he gets back, I expect Tyleik and DJ Reader to form a formidable tandem with Pat O’Connor, Roy Lopez and Mekhi Wingo supplementing with a healthy rotation. I really wish that they had signed a free agent of some sort to go opposite Hutch. I like Davenport’s traits but he is always hurt and completely unreliable. Al-Quadin Muhammad showed some potential last year and produced and I have no idea what to expect from Tyrus Wheat. They added Wheat and Tyler Lacy off waivers after roster cut downs and I don’t know enough about them to comment. I will be very curious to see what their plan is if and when Marcus Davenport gets hurt.
The crew the Lions have a linebacker is pretty damn good, especially when you consider Malcolm Rodriguez is still out with his knee injury. With his torn ACL last November, I would be very surprised if he plays much this year. Otherwise, the crew is largely the same with the additions of Grant Stuard and Zach Cunningham. Cunningham has been a tackling machine his entire career and Stuard is going to make a major impact on special teams. I was very impressed with Stuard’s play at linebacker in the preseason and the fact he was voted as a captain already says a lot. So do not expect him to only play special teams and only contribute there, but that is where he is going to make the most impact.
The secondary looks largely the same from a starters perpective, but it is important to note that I think the safety depth is worse this year than in previous years. They added DJ Reed in free agency, which is a huge upgrade over Carlton Davis in my opinion. Reed is more durable than Davis and allows Terrion to continue to develop and play the #2 spot. This leaves the nickel for Amik Robertson and clearly they have Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph starting at safety. They are one of the best safety tandems in the NFL and honestly, I think this is one of the best starting secondary groups in the NFL. Maybe I’m losing my mind, but this is a crew that makes plays. Where things get hairy are the depth. Losing Ennis Rakestraw for the season hurts his development and hurts their depth, but they seemingly prepared for this and signed some veterans in free agency. They added Avonte Maddox and Rock Ya-Sin and I expect that one of them will be the primary backup at safety (some say it’ll be Rock but Avonte has played it before…either way we’ll find out). They also signed Daniel Thomas shortly after the cut downs and I expect him to play a lot of special teams. As for Harper and Dorsey? Let’s just hope they do not have to play. I was surprised that they cut Loren Strickland after the preseason, but like I said earlier you’ve got to trust them. I would not be worried about any of these guys spot starting here and there, but you’re not going to want any of the backups playing a majority of the season.
So what do we expect out of this unit? I think they will have an outstanding unit that makes plays and torments offenses. I do not expect the play calling or scheme to change at all, even with Kelvin Sheppard taking over as DC. But what you’re really hoping for and looking for, is the younger players on the roster to continue to grow and develop and for them to stay healthy. The team will need Terrion to play like he did in the second half of the year and not the human flag he was the first part of the year. And without Alim McNeill, they’re going to need Tyleik Williams to make an impact right away. I also think with Alex Anzalone sitting out waiting for a new contract (and the Lions being unwilling to break the bank for him) indicates that they’re ready for Jack Campbell to take control of the defense and be the guy in the middle running the show. And whatever blood ritual dark magic Marcus Davenport has to do to stay healthy needs to be done ASAP.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Nothing to see here. Jake Bates and Jack Fox will continue to handle their same duties and I just hope Bates stays consistent. He missed some kicks at the training camp practice I was at and it was not super reassuring. But he has one of the best legs in the league and they should continue to be a great pair. I expect Kalif Raymond or rookie WR Dominic Lovett to return punts and based on the preseason, LB Grant Stuard and Craig Reynolds will return kicks. You may wonder why Stuard, but Stuard ran track in college and he can fly. Not only that, but he is a big man and tough to bring down. As long as he does not fumble like he did in the Hall of Fame game, he will be a nice wrinkle at kick returner.
SEASON PREDICTION
The one thing they do not tell you when you’ve been a fan of a bad team your whole life is that once you are really good, you get the hardest schedules in the league. The Lions over-under win total has been hovering around 10.5 for good reason. I may be losing my marbles but I think they could go 13-4 if they stay healthy. I expect at least 9-10 wins with a playoff appearance at the absolute minimum and I’m optimistic for 12-13. Even though they’re in one of the two best divisions in football (if not the best), they have a great team and you have to beat the best teams to win it all anyways. As always, injuries can derail a season, but it’s hard to assume guys will just get hurt and that they’ll always be your best players or most important players. So let us assume there is not another freak rash of injuries and they are not starting guys in the playoffs that were working at Enterprise the week before. This team has tools and traits of a winning powerhouse. The media likes to be concerned about the loss of Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson…and I’m not here to belittle those losses or them. They were key pieces in turning around the franchise and they will be missed. But they were coaching Dan Campbell football and Dan Campbell is still there and Brad Holmes is still constructing the roster. How can you not have the utmost faith in a pair of guys that carried 3 less players than they were allowed to because they did not have enough players in camp that met their standard? Their standard is excellence and they will not stop until it is achieved. I’m going to go ahead and say it, I’m predicting the Lions to beat the Ravens in the Super Bowl.
Photo via: WXYZ
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