After a pair of improbable seasons, following the disaster that was the COVID season, it is safe to say that expectations for the Michigan football team are off the charts. I cannot remember a season where expectations were this high. Perhaps the 2007 season when Michigan was preseason #5 and promptly lost to App State and Oregon in consecutive weeks. Not the fondest of memories, but safe to say that Michigan’s strength of schedule this year won’t touch 2007. With the preseason #2 ranking comes lofty expectations, and I’m not sure I can say that Michigan is the second best team in the country right now. They do have the potential for it though, especially considering the fire power that they have on the offensive side of the ball, there will be few teams in the country that can keep pace with them offensively.

All of this comes after we had yet another offseason marred by Harbaugh to the NFL rumors. I think this is going to be the new normal and after the NCAA came for Harbaugh, it would not shock me if this was his last year in Ann Arbor. The self-imposed three-game suspension is not going to sit well with him (he characterized it as a baseball bat to the knee caps) and I do not think it will be something he will let go. On the plus side, this will give Michigan football a phenomenal rallying cry and another common enemy to rally around for this season. Something that Harbaugh does well with to say the least.

OFFENSE

For the first time in Harbaugh’s tenure (I think) the Michigan football staff was not going to have any turnover until they let Matt Weiss go. I’m not sure what computer related crimes, or however they want to characterize it means, but Kirk Campbell is the new quarterbacks coach. We’ll find out soon how quickly this change matters because Campbell will be the one calling plays against ECU with Sherrone Moore serving his one-game suspension. Frankly, I expect the change to matter very little (in terms of a negative manner) and I expect the returning offense to absolute hammer opponents.

There are not any questions about who the starting quarterback is. JJ McCarthy did an excellent job in his first year last year and I expect him to take strides forward again. He needs to work on his ball placement to reach that next level, but he could be a first round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft if his ascension continues. He had over 2700 yards passing last year and his TD to interception ratio of 22-5 was excellent. If he gets hurt, things will be a complete mess. Jack Tuttle, Warren Davis, Alex Orji are probably the next guys in line and I expect Orji to get touches and to be involved in the run game around the goal line and in short yardage situations. He may also return kicks and that would be quite the sight. If any of them have to play meaningful minutes, this season could go off the rails, so let’s not think about that. It’s a hard balance because Michigan needs JJ to use his legs more to gain yards and provide the offense with some other different looks, but he also cannot get hurt. I would imagine that for the first four games they will keep JJ in the pocket as much as possible and they have probably spent a ton of time telling him to not take any unnecessary hits again.

There’s not much to say about the running backs. The fact Blake Corum came back is incredible. Corum and Donovan Edwards form the best running back duo in the country and I expect big things from them again. They each had over 1100 yards from scrimmage and I think Corum would have won the Heisman had he stayed healthy. Edwards was incredible down the stretch and I would expect very close to a 50-50 touch ratio between the two of them. Edwards main issue right now is that he can tend to go down too easily and does not make many guys miss. Corum’s only weakness is he doesn’t run a 4.3, from a running standpoint he is everything you want and then some. As for the depth behind these two? Kalel Mullings should be the third back and the short yardage back, but after that it’ll be a pod of CJ Stokes, Tavierre Dunlap and Benjamin Hall in the mix. I expect all six of these backs to get playing time the first three weeks and the depth chart will shake itself out even further.

The pass catchers are an interesting group and the returning production is going to be huge for the offense. Losing Ronnie Bell and Luke Schoonmaker definitely creates a hole. Bell had almost 900 receiving yards last year and that won’t be easy to replace. I do not think this is the best group or most dynamic group, but they know their roles, they block well and they can make plays when called upon. Roman Wilson will be wearing the #1 jersey this year and he has earned it. Between Wilson and Cornelius Johnson you have solid receivers that have had solid careers but have not been game breakers. Will a young player step up as a game breaker this year? Between Darrius Clemons, Tyler Morris, Cristian Dixon, Karmello English, Semaj Morgan, and Frederick Moore some guys will need to step up. Peyton O’Leary will be a contributor but he’s not going to be a game breaker. I’ve heard that Semaj Morgan has returned some punts in practice, perhaps he can be a lightning rod for the offense as well? Morris was initially named a starter but Harbaugh revealed on his radio show that he has been hurt in camp. This is a position group where two guys are solidified and it could very well be a committee rolling around to fill the 3-5 spots. I also would not be shocked if Michigan lined up Colston Loveland in the slot now and then. With Loveland and Barner they have a fantastic tight end duo, arguably a better one than last year. Loveland is arguably the most dynamic tight end in the country after Brock Bowers and I think they will use him as much as possible and try to get the ball into his hands often. After Barner, you have a solid crew of blocking tight ends and knowing Harbaugh, all of them will play.

The offensive line has a lot of questions this year…questions as to who the starting line will actually be. Michigan has without a doubt the deepest offensive line group in the country and their second unit would start at many schools. But, there are only five spots and I’m not sure how it is going to shake out. Harbaugh has said that it will be like the QB situation last year where guys will start different games and the competition will play out into the season.

LT: ? LG: Trevor Keegan C: Drake Nugent RG: Zak Zinter RT: ?

I think the tackle spots are the two question marks right now. The interior offensive line is loaded, especially after they grabbed Nugent out of the transfer portal. Zinter and Keegan will be drafted next spring and Zinter has a case to be the first OG taken next year. Greg Crippen will be your backup center and Gio El-Hadi will backup the guard spots. At left tackle, you presumably have a battle between returning starter Karsen Barnhart and ASU transfer LaDarius Henderson and at right tackle it would be Trente Jones and Stanford transfer Myles Hinton (Chris Hinton’s brother). Barnhart as long been thought of as the most versatile offensive lineman in the group and Harbaugh has even said as much. I think Henderson ends up starting at LT and then Barnhart or Hinton will end up at RT. Barnhart as the 6th man can plug in anywhere but center and he would hop on the field like Trente Jones did in jumbo packages. It’s also important to note that Henderson is moving from guard to tackle and missed spring practice, so it’s entirely possible that Barnhart starts the year at left tackle. Harbaugh has said he’s had the best camp of almost anyone. Michigan has a plethora of riches and their offensive line will once again be the best in the country. It’s just going to take another month to see who ends up starting on it.

DEFENSE

Rather than continue to harp on how great the offense is, let’s take a look at the defense.

The defense has lost plenty of important players the past two seasons and yet they managed to stay at the same high level. I think that the front 6/7 of this defense will continue to play at that high level and the run defense will be great. The concerns with this defense reside in the secondary and with the pass defense…and even more specifically, with the second corner spot. If they can find someone to play there, this defense could be better than last year. A defense that was 7th in the country in points allowed per game for that matter. No one knew how Jesse Minter would do following Mike Macdonald but suffice it to say things have worked out well. Minter could be off to the NFL after this year it has worked so well.

Losing Mazi Smith and Mike Morris up front hurts, no doubt about it. Morris’ 7.5 sacks and Okie’s 4.5 sacks will be tough to replace but the addition of Josiah Stewart from the transfer portal as well as the development of Derrick Moore and Jaylen Harrell will help quell the loss on the edge. Braiden McGregor is someone I’ve been hoping will take a step for quite some time and I’m waiting for him to take a leap forward and be the guy. I think we can expect a healthy rotation of Moore, Stewart, Harrell, and McGregor. Harrell and McGregor may end up being the official starters, but there is no way that Moore and Stewart won’t be on the field early and often throughout the game. Keeping guys fresh will be key and their depth will help the pass rush and run defense by always being fresh.

As for the interior of the defensive line, losing Mazi will hurt and not many guys can disrupt like him…but Kris Jenkins is a freak and he will be a problem for the opposing interior offensive line. Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Rashaun Benny and Cam Goode will be in the mix with Jenkins and it shows just how deep this group is. Mason Graham played a ton as a true freshman and his emergence helped save the quality of the interior DL last year. And what’s even crazier is that Kenneth Grant was the first pick in the Spring Game Draft this year. Graham and Grant are both only true sophomores and the rise over the last 16 months will help solidify this interior.

At linebacker experience is key and Michigan is returning starters Michael Barrett and Junior Colson. Colson is an absolute stud in the run game and at playing downhill so I’m hoping he has improved in the pass game to balance out his role. Barrett is a heart and soul guy and excels in coverage and well, doing just about anything. His size is not ideal but it has not kept him from playing at a high level so far. Ernest Hausmann transferred in from Nebraska and started there as a true freshman and in my opinion, he will play a lot this year. He was a big time player at Nebraska and the fact that he couldn’t beat out Barrett and Colson is a great sign for Barrett and Colson. It does not mean anything negative for Hausmann, it just means that they will spend a lot of time with only two linebackers on the field. Hausmann will be the first man on the field for either linebacker spot and then Jimmy Rolder will round out the two deep. Rolder looked good as a true freshman and the future is bright at the linebacker spot. If they can add some depth recruiting wise they’ll be in great shape the next two years.

Now we get to the fun portion of this…the secondary. Cornerback has two of the three starting spots solidified with Will Johnson and Mike Sainristil. Both were fantastic last year and I expect Will Johnson to build off his success as a true freshman. Sainristil is another heart and soul guy and his play in the nickel after moving from wide receiver has been outstanding. The problem is going to be who will start with them? Amorion Walker is an athletic freak that they moved from wide receiver but he is inexperienced and he has been hurt during fall camp. That’s not a great combo. He looked extremely average and raw in the spring game, but had only played corner for a short period of time so I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt there. Now you mix in that he has missed a bunch of time in the fall and you have some concerns. Josh Wallace transferred in from UMass and brings experience to the table but how talented is he? Ja’Den McBurrows is likely in the mix here as well but I think he’s clearly behind the other two in terms of starting. Pray for everyone to stay healthy because it gets into a lot of unknowns very quickly. Losing DJ Turner created an enormous hole in an otherwise very solid defense. The first three games are going to be great for getting young guys experience and seeing who can play. Meanwhile, safety is in a great spot with Rod Moore and Makari Paige…except both are hurt right now. RJ Moten transferred in the offseason so Keon Sabb, Zeke Berry and Quinten Johnson are the primary backups and the current rumor is that Sabb and Johnson will start the first week because Moore and Paige are still banged up. Sabb and Berry may be young but the talent is there and Sabb has apparently taken a huge step. I’m curious to see how they play to start the season, but the safety spot is secure when everyone is healthy.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Losing Jake Moody is going to be a tremendous loss that cannot be understated. Michigan has added James Turner out of the transfer portal (Saline native that played at Louisville) and Adam Samaha is a talented true freshman kicker…neither of which are on Moody’s level at the moment but Turner will be the starter. It will be imperative for the Wolverines to finish drives this year. Turner was 90.9% last year and was 38/39 on extra points, but the previous season he was 14/22 kicking. Perhaps he has taken a step but it’s hard to know with kickers. Brad Robbins was a bit of a loss but I’m hoping that Michigan won’t need to punt next year. Tommy Doman has an all world leg and can do kickoffs, field goals and punts but it seems like he will just be the punter/kick off man for now. Definitely no concerns here. As for the kick return and punt return spots? Lot of hot rumors for each but the most intriguing is Alex Orji returning kicks. Harbaugh says he could be one of the best kick returners of all time so I’m here for it.

DEPTH CHART

This is an educated guess right now and we will get major clarity on this over the course of the first three games as some of these battles continue to play out. As I said before, the offensive line is anyone’s guess and there are a ton of combos that could be seen early on. Barnhart is the only one that could presumably start at multiple spots, so if there is ever an injury, he will be your utility guy.

SEASON PREDICTION

I’m trying to pump the brakes a bit and not get too excited or expect too much out of this team. BUT, this team could win it all. If someone emerges at cornerback, this team does not have a fatal flaw. They have balance and playmakers on both sides of the ball. The amount of talent on the offensive line and at running back is absolutely stupid, and then you add in an extremely talented quarterback with experience? Watch. Out.

I cannot in good conscience pick Michigan to go undefeated. It’s bad karma/juju/luck/etc. I think Penn State will be a tough battle and Maryland screams trap game. Both of them are on the road and could be prime upset games. And frankly, I would not sleep on Michigan State either. Playing MSU at night on the road is going to be very problematic. Hostile environments cause chaos and night time road games are always primed for shenanigans. If Ohio State was on the road, I would predict that as a loss. Beating OSU three years in a row just seems completely impossible but the inexperience at QB for them will make things interesting. I think ultimately Michigan will go 11-1, win their division and win the Big Ten Championship again. As for the playoff? Who knows. I would have guaranteed a win against TCU, anything can happen once you get in the tournament…you just need to get a seat at the table.

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